Our Method: The NewWorld Election Tracking Report
We think differently about who counts in elections – and that inspires a novel research design.
Read the latest edition of our Election Report here.
There are many drivers of our politics, but few are stronger than identity. How we relate to individuals and institutions with power is strongly shaped by our perceptions of how those institutions deliver for us? personally, but also how they deliver for people like us. In politicians we look not only for which policies they support, but also to understand who they believe truly belongs. Identity is tricky because we all have many of them - geography, age, desire, opportunity, race, belief - and it’s not always easy to understand which animates our political identity, how we act as citizens at any moment in time.
Years of research, strategy development, and campaign design, working through and between electoral cycles, has led us to a strong point of view: race continues to shape how we understand and act in our politics, but the existential threat to voters posed by elitism that has left many behind, has led to a critical disrupture and resulted in new political identities that we often fail to fully acknowledge even as they gain traction and cultural presence. Put simply: while much attention has been paid to the grievances driving Trumpism to ascendance on the right, the center and left choose to ignore these same forces at our own peril.
The NewWorld Election Report starts from a premise that we underestimate the diversity of voters of color, which leads us to under-analyze them, and ultimately to underinvest and under-deliver for them. This report disrupts that pattern by identifying, analyzing, and discussing a group of voters that will play an outsize role in our elections this year and for the foreseeable future. These voters - all of color, all with less than a college degree - are under-discussed inside current polling, but our research shows them to be extremely high opportunity base voters for whoever has the insights and strategies to reach and mobilize them.
Our job across the next 90 days is to track them in detail and share the insights, messages, and content strategies that push party activists and campaign strategists to rebuild the party brand in a way that connects directly with everyday voters, crushes the idea that democracy is an elite notion, and energizes corners of the electorate that could put entire states on the map by representing a margin of victory (or defeat) in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and beyond. In other words, we believe it is a fight for the base that holds the keys to our political futures - not the undecided white Midwestern “swing” voter who have dominated our political discourse of elections. These under-discussed, too often unactivated elements of our base, yearning for our attention, that shape our research strategies and analysis.
Our Methodology
This bi-weekly polling is structured to elicit subject responses that result in clearer insights, reduced bias and more accurate, discriminating data. This complex survey allows for a crucial framework where understanding extreme voter preferences is paramount.
By utilizing a combination of open-ended (coded), Maximum Difference (max-diff) and structured solicitations the resulting analysis is benefitted by clear prioritization and ranking, as well as concise attribute resolution while reducing respondent fatigue and allowing for deep quantitative analysis inclusive of utility scoring and predictive preference share modeling.
In addition, this analysis employs distinct voter segment modeling to both validate findings and enhance the context of how and why those findings are resonant.
